FAB / VOL. II — JAPAN CRISIS & AMERICAN COMEBACK
FIG. 02·1 — DRAM
A Twenty-Year Tectonic Shift
A History of Memory · 1978 — 1998

The chip the world
ran on, and the country
that ran out of it.

For two decades, dynamic random-access memory — DRAM — was the most measured, most undifferentiated, most strategically loaded commodity in technology. The country that made it set the pace of computing. Between 1978 and 1998, that country changed twice.

By the silicon desk · sources: Princeton OTA 1990, NBER, Flamm 1996, SIA, Samsung Semiconductor, IC Insights
U.S. share / 1978
100%
Every leading-edge DRAM in the world — invented and built in America.
U.S. share / 1986
~20%
Position lost in five years to a Japanese consortium organised by MITI.
Surviving U.S. DRAM firms by 1989
2
Texas Instruments and a small Idaho upstart called Micron.
Korean share / 1995
~38%
Samsung passes Toshiba in 1992; the throne the Japanese had taken is taken from them.

The crossovershare of global DRAM revenue, by country of HQ

United States
Japan
Korea
Europe / Other

The Japanese did not invent DRAM. They industrialised it. MITI's 1976–80 VLSI Project pooled the engineers of NEC, Toshiba, Hitachi, Fujitsu and Mitsubishi inside a shared lab in Kawasaki and pointed them at the next two memory generations. By 1981 Japanese factories were running at yields of 70–80% while American fabs were stuck at 50–60%. By 1985, the 64K chip that had sold for $3.50 in early 1984 was selling for 35 cents — a ten-fold collapse engineered by a Hitachi sales memo that instructed its U.S. force to "win with the 10% rule": bid 10% under any American price, no matter what the price was.

Then, on June 14, 1985, the Semiconductor Industry Association filed a Section 301 petition. Ten days later, an Idaho startup called Micron filed an antidumping case. By September 1986, the U.S. and Japan had signed a managed-trade agreement that put a floor under DRAM prices. The agreement did not save American DRAM — most of it had already disappeared. What it did instead was leave Korea, freshly entered into the business under Lee Byung-chul's 1983 Tokyo Declaration, an open lane to the global market.

1976
MITI's VLSI Project opens in Kawasaki — five rivals, shared lab.
MAR 1980
The Anderson Bombshell — HP reports Japanese chips fail at 1/10 the U.S. rate.
FEB 1983
Lee Byung-chul's Tokyo Declaration: Samsung will make memory.
OCT 1985
Andy Grove walks Intel out of DRAM. 7,200 jobs cut.
SEP 1986
U.S.–Japan Semiconductor Trade Agreement signed.
1992
Samsung passes Toshiba — world's #1 DRAM maker.
2013
Micron buys bankrupt Elpida, the last Japanese DRAM firm.

Roll call · the eight U.S. DRAM producers, 1980

Mostekclosed 1985
Intelexit 1985
Inmossold to ST
National Semiexit, late '80s
AMDwithdrew
Motorolawound down
Texas Instrumentsexit 1998
Micronsurvives